Abstract Summary
The built environment causes an important part of society’s environmental impacts, both in the construction and in the use phase. As the energy performance of buildings improve, construction materials become more important as a cause of environmental impact. Less attention has been given to those materials. We work out three different strategies (traditional building, bio-based building and circular building) for the future built environment in the Netherlands, and assess the consequences for future material flows and stocks until 2050. All three strategies conform to the newest standards related to the energy performance of the buildings. We include these strategies in spatially explicit scenarios for construction and demolition in the Netherlands, with different assumptions on socio-economic developments. Our results show that the expected growth of the building stock and the long lifespan of buildings result in a relatively low material outflow compared to material inflow. Additionally, building and demolition rates are substantially higher in scenarios with a high level of urbanization due to building densification. Building construction in rural areas lowers material demand, but reduces the urban mining potential even further. Primary material demand can be lowered substantially when shifting towards biobased materials and circular constructions. Reduced floor space areas in dwelling and improved recycling practices can further reduce raw material demand. The approach presented in this work can be used to analyze strategies aimed at closing material cycles and lowering primary material demand in the building sector.
